… As The Polity Charges UP, Will GEJ Eat The Bait Now?
Tamunidienye George
The Nigeria’s polity is charging up ahead of intense politicking towards 2023 general elections, following issuance of electoral time table by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
The cynosure of all eyes is the plum position of president, especially, as President Muhammadu Buhari is statute-barred from taking another shot.
Given this scenario, ambitious top brass of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), are jostling to succeed the incumbent. Chief Ahmed Bola Tinibu was the first to visit Aso Rock, to seek President Buhari’s blessings, followed by David Omahi, governor of Ebonyi State of the East.
The moves by the APC bigwigs is amid plan to controversially woo former president, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to retake power from President Buhari, to whom he had conceded defeat and peaceably handed over power in 2015.
These developments have thrown up pungent analyses, particularly in the media sphere.
Some Nigerians are concerned that what they need is a qualified, competent, effective and detribalized leader who will take the country out of the quagmire of ethno-religion conflicts, insecurity, disharmony and austerity.
Others were arguing for zoning of party tickets for the presidency to the East, to give them a sense of belonging in the Nigeria Project.
Presently, in the APC, the pendulum is swinging to the South. And the Yorubas may get upper hand, given their politcal shrewdness.
If the APC finally settles for the South, then the entire axis would slug it out among themselves, to produce a presidential candidate, while a running mate comes from the North. Already, the party is planning to zone its party’s chairmanship to the North Central, an indication that it would likely zone the presidential ticket to the South.
These arrangements could boost Chief Tinibu’s long time ambition to bestride the presidential seat, hoping that President Muhammadu Buhari he supported to clinch power in 2015 and 2019, would pay him back in good penny.
Chief Tinibu, the Lion of Bourdileon has an intimidating political clout, and has started roaring in the political lanscape. His huge business and political empire built over the years from his days in the oil sector, National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) which immensely contributed to the country’s return from military to civilian government; a senatorial position he later held and floating of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), speak volumes about him.
These are in addition to his past remarkable performance as Lagos State Governor, where he managed affairs even without federal allocations for a long time, due to political skirmishes with the then president, Chief Olusegun Obasnajo. Tinibu’s knack for using the best brains and pushing them higher, besides carrying many people along in governance are useful arsenals for his presidential political project.
However, the bait being dangled at the former president, Dr. Jonathan, if it materializes, could make permutations a bit hazy on the APC’s side. This mostly concerns, whether, Dr. Jonathan who is wooed like a beautiful bride, amid divided opinions from citizens, would be honoured with automatic ticket by the APC that ousted him, and passed the buck of the humongous problems of the country to him and the PDP.
Or, whether, he would have to face the likes of other contenders, like Chief Tinibu, Governor Omahi, Chief Orji Uzor Kalu and others who will soon join the race.
Governor Omahi’s infrastructural development efforts stand him out for upward mobility, but he would have to contend with the Independent People of Biafra (IPOB) as its embattled leader, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu sees Omahi as opposing the organisation’s agenda.
Omahi could also meet strong competition with Chief Orji Uzor Kalu, former governor of Abia State, serving Senator and business mogul, with wider local and national affiliations. Chief Kalu, as it appears, may throw his hat into the ring of the APC’s ring to fight in the primary election. He has however said that it wasn’t a do or die affair for him.
The big question is: will Dr. Jonathan actually join the APC to face Tinibu, the Jagaban, and others in the primary election? Also, would Dr. Jonathan be ready to accept any outcome, even if an embarrassing one to his soaring international reputation as a peace ambassador, having saved Nigeria from going into the precipice by peacefully handing over power? These are indeed pertinent questions for him to answer.
Should Dr. Jonathan accept the daisy offer to contest, his entrance into the ring, could dismantle many scheming and extant political structures across party lines and the whole country, given his soaring global reputation since after peaceably leaving office. New sharing formulas and camps would surely emerge, and old ones could collapse into the new ones.
If it so happens, then, the aspiration of Chief Tinibu and others might have to be re-calculated on the bases of new formulas and structures. Already, some Lagos and Yoruba intellects, as it is usual in that zone full of intelligenciers and crack professionals, have started media analyses against his aspiration, even though support is also swelling for him.
Those championing that a young person should rather be the next president, are using old age as an argument against the Jagaban’s aspiration. Youths as the active-voter population bracket of the country are the ones mostly holding this view against the old school leaders.
This is besides his being perceived as a man ambitious for power and control, aside the Buhari and Northern cabal’s perception that if given the opportunity, the Jagaban, might not kowtow to their wishes. Thus, despite being a Muslim, he might not get the blessing from the Northern kingmakers, to smoothly sail to the position of president.
Prof. Yome Osibanjo, incumbent Vice President of the country and protégé of Chief Tinibu is another factor in the political calculus. Intelligent, articulate and amiable, Prof. Osibanjo is in a position to get go ahead from his boss, President Buhari in what could turn out to be the story of Esau and Jacob, between him and his master, Tinibu. However, Buhari has kept his likely successor to the chest, even though he had announced that he will retire to his farms in Katsina.
Although, groups are clamouring for Prof. Osibanjo, even groups from the North, influence peddlers in that axis, feel that despite his gentle mien and loyalty so far displayed to President Buhari, he may change colour, if entrusted with the presidential power. The masses admire his intellect, but some lampoon that his rhetoric on national issues, is one too many.
But if given blessing for the race, Prof. Osibanjo could pose a threat to Chief Tinibu’s ambition, given incumbency factor and age difference, unless the vice president would not want to go to war with his master.
Notwithstanding, Tinibu has many fans even in the North, yet, his political tentacles and structures are not so nationally spread to all zones, except that the name rings bell, especially for the Joker Card he used in supporting Buhari to become president, after the latter tried three times but to no avail.
More so, the APC’s enticement to Dr. Jonathan, is receiving ovation from many Nigerians, considering his comparative good performance in his first outing. This is despite analyses by some Nigerians that Dr. Jonathan did not forget anything in Aso Rock. They equally say that he was not able to use his reign to actualize many of his visions hence he should save his head and remain what he is as a global peace ambassador.
Dr. Jonathan’s invitation to the race by the APC, coming especially from the Hausa-Fulani clique is also interpreted as another intriguing plot to return power to North, because if enthroned, he cannot do another term. The plot is however baffling to some thinkers, even though he might perform well.
But the factor of comparative performance is being heralded by his admirers and support groups which are already drumming for his return to power.
Also to be considered as another factor is whether, the ambitions of persons from the same South-South Zone with Dr. Jonathan. For instance, the likes of Chief Rotimi Amaechi, Chief Timipre Sylva might be interested in the same election, unless, any of them may settle for vice presidential offer or all of them would take something else. Reports however show that political power brokers are resolving existing conflicts among some of the disagreeing fellows.
Chief Amaechi, former speaker and former governor of Rivers State, has a credible record of good performance in his state. A dynamic and bold fellow, Amaechi is also doing well in his current position as minister for transport, particularly in implementing rail-way/train transport projects, as well as doing the bidding of President Buhari in other ways.
Amaechi’s peccadillo could just be the grouse held against him by the South-South, that he was one person used to boot out a brother, Dr. Jonathan from office as president in 2015. He is also seen as too self-willed to lead a country, and has been on an irreconcilable political brawling with another brother, Governor Nyesome Wike. Chief Amaechi is also lashed for not attracting federal projects to Rivers State, the way projects under his ministry are going to other states, and up to Niger Republic, under his ministerial watch.
Chief Timipre Sylva’s political capital has increased a lot since he became Minister for Petroleum (State). Charming and well-spoken, Chief Sylva is qualified for top national leadership, given some aspects of good performance as former governor of Bayelsa State, and large followership he commands at home.
Sylva is attracting federal projects, completion of old ones and commencement of overdue ones, for instance the Nigeria Content Development Management Board’s office in Yenagoa; epidemics and infectious diseases hospital, Yenagoa and the fertilizer processing plant at Brass. But, his Achilles’ heel, might also be his being used to curtail Dr. Jonathan’s previous second term bid.
Chief Sylva is also perceived as being independent-minded, and that he might not be amenable to control, if given any of the topmost positions of power in the country. He too, has had political skirmishes with politicians in his state, leaving his structures and those of the APC in the state, polarized.
For the PDP, there seems to be clearer indication that its presidential ticket might be set aside for the North, to pair with a Southern running mate.
Alhaji Atiku Abubaker, Nigeria’s former Vice President and many times presidential contender is said to be warming up for another outing. His ambition too, is not without some considerations. For instance, where he would pick a running mate, from the South-South or the East as he did in 2019. Though, unannounced, feelers are pointing to Chief Nyesom Wike, as Atiku’s running mate.
Atiku also has huge business and political might, accumulated over the years. His political name and network cut across the whole country. He has a sound blue print to reposition Nigeria for better economic and political fortunes, through his much-canvassed true federalism, devolution of more powers to States and Local Government levels, as well as privatisation programmes.
But Atiku is also seen as one of the old school politcal leaders, in terms of age bracket. Yet, he is still strong and dynamic for such an assignment.
He might also face sentiments from the North, on the grounds of his acclaimed bridge-builder posture, and disposition to restructuring the polity to create fairness and competition for development among states and regions.
Gladiators in the North, for example, Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal, governor of Sokoto State, and others in that axis might be interested in the presidential race, hence may slug it with Alhaji Atiku in the PDP’s primary election.
In the South, governor of Rivers State, Barr Nyesome Wike and others appear to be warming up. Though he and others might also settle for running mate or something else, Barr Wike, for example could pose a threat to Atiku’s moves, especially in the Niger Delta. Barr Wike could be having another option of cracking a deal with his paddy man, Alhaji Tambuwal, so that he could be running mate if PDP actually zones the presidential ticket to the North, and if anything halts him from being Atiku’s running mate.
Wike, a lawyer, political scientist, ex-local government Chairman, former Chief of Staff, former Minister of Education (State), and now Governor. He has proved himself a development-oriented and pragmatic leader in the past and currently as governor of Rivers State. He has presently earned accolades as Mr. Projects, and for outspokenness on state, regional and national issues, sterling records which weigh in his favour for upward mobility.
Yet, he is also seen as one who is too outspoken, and would not be amenable to control by kingmakers. This was noticed also from the PDP’s primary election that held in Port-Harcourt ahead of the 2019 general elections. He nearly posed a stumbling block to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in the primary election. Wike’s unending political fisticuffs and media altercations with his brother, Chief Amaechi and other bigwig politicians, could count against his chance.
There seems to be a new twist to the permutations. If feelers are anything to go by, PDP’s ticket might actually go the North, then, a Southern running mate may pair with a Northern presidential candidate.
The feelers tend to indicate that a South-Southerner is being discussed in certain circles, for PDP’s joint-presidential ticket. Prof. Steve Sinikiem Azaiki, of Bayelsa State, as hints indicate, could be the one being touted, to pair in the PDP’s ticket, as running mate, to go into the battle for Aso Rock, come 2023.
Indications are that, given his vast background, wealth of experience, level headedness, wide affiliations and detribalized nature, he could be suitable for the Second-in-Command’s position. He was said to have been approached by top echelon political leaders and elder statesmen in the country, and intimated of likelihood of being presented to stand for the presidential election in a dual ticket with one of the presidential hopefuls in the PDP. Further talks are said to have been held on the matter.
There appears to be another opinion from some quarters that, Prof. Azaiki has the pedigree for the presidential position itself.
But that, the coast might get clearer for him in running mate slot, given his credentials and character. However, some feel that despite his experience and current position as a lawmaker at the House of Representatives, swimming across the nation’s murky political waters infested with wild sharks, might not be an easy task for him.
Those privy to the talks, are of the view that, given a chance to run as a running mate to a rugged political sailor, Prof. Azaiki could add immense value to governance, as a bureaucrat, technocrat and academic. Azaiki holds three Doctor of Philosophy Degrees, most recent of which is a Doctor of Science (DSc) in Public Administration, obtained abroad, two master’s degrees, among others.
However, if Dr. Jonathan acquiesces to APC’s overture to run as President on its ticket, then Prof. Azaiki, might not accept to run as running mate with a PDP presidential flag bearer, as it would look like a Bayelsa or South-South show.
From the look of things, the 2023 politicking will indeed be one of the most intriguing, given developments already playing out ahead, especially the North-South bipolar equations being calculated. This is interestingly, in terms of APC’s overture to Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, the cream of persons lining up for the battle and the fact that President Muhammadu Buhari is constitutionally barred, yet could back the persons of his choice.
As the polity charges up, the question is, will Dr. Jonathan run? Who and who will finally scale through the parties’ primary turfs, to later get the nod of the electorate, to become the next President and Vice President of Nigeria.
Time! And only time, and above all God, shall tell again!