…These days the most difficult commodity available is fidelity, as always, personal interests often override collective interests…
…The power of incumbency is no longer invincible. Nearly 10 serving Governors have lost their states to the opposition…
By Ahmad Sajoh
Already there is a frenzy of panic driven decisions taking place at the highest level of governance in Adamawa State as the March 11th gubernatorial election draw closer. One of the most absurd things is the ban on NGO activities. While it is hard to rationalize the ban beyond the romour created and spread by misguided advisers that NGOs would be used to buy votes nothing concrete is established. But this is definitely expected.
Many factors determined the outcome of the last election. The most important being the Atiku Abubakar factor. Now the Wazirin Adamawa is not on the ballot. Things will surely be different. Many candidates rode on the bandwagon effect of a towering presidential candidate to cruise to victory. The current candidates do not have that advantage.
Now that the presidential election is over, new realities will emerge and shifting allegiances will be witnessed.
The long drawn internal wranglings within the APC also played a huge role in determining outcomes. Already the ruling party in the state has been reaching out to many people within the APC. That is expected. Many allegiances will shift depending on what promises are made, what personal interests are advanced and what deals are cut.
The days coming will reveal so many things. These days the most difficult commodity available is fidelity. As always, personal interests often override collective interests. That is a serious missing link in our political life, and even beyond politics.
So many meetings will be held to woe opponents. More panic measures will be unleashed by the ruling party and their candidates. The latent disagreements within the PDP, which was masked by a united front for Atiku Abubakar will now become apparent. So, within the PDP as well allegiances will shift.
The APC has a very formidable candidate in the person of Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed Binani. She is also capable of creating her own bandwagon effect. Therefore the election will be very interesting and an obvious upset is expected.
One of the strongest things relied on by the governing PDP is the incumbency factor. But that has been thoroughly demystified during the last election. Five incumbent Governors have lost their Senatorial elections as candidates. What this implies is that if a sitting governor can lose a Senatorial election while in power, it then means that the power of incumbency is no longer invincible. Nearly 10 serving Governors have lost their states to the opposition. So to rely solely on the power of incumbency or to be intimidated by it are both out of the question.
Going by the statistics of the National Assembly candidates results across the country it is also quite obvious that many people voted for candidates rather than parties. Many states where a Presidential Candidate of a party got an overwhelming majority had not posted even one National Assembly candidate. So, a good candidate like Senator Binani does not need to fear any effects of the power of incumbency.
For the APC the success of the presidential candidate of the party at the presidential election is a very big boast. If President Muhammadu Buhari had behaved like other presidents who were unfair and unjust to states not controlled by their party, nothing would have happened in this state.
Having a state government operating differently from the president is indeed a major setback. President Muhammadu Buhari may be good, but that should not make us push our luck too far. We need our next Governor to be on the same page with the president of the Federal Republic. That is the minimum requirement for us to attract huge dividends from the Federal government.
Moreover we in Adamawa State need to prove to our President-elect that Afamawa is an APC state. We must deliver our gubernatorial candidate and all House of Assembly candidates.
One factor that will definitely influence the next election is the factor of women on the ballot. While the APC has a woman as a gubernatorial candidate, the PDP has a woman as a running mate, a position that puts her a heartbeat away from being Governor. Head or tail a woman will govern Adamawa State in the next dispensation. So those promoting the notion that a woman cannot rule the state are on a failed mission. But beyond being a woman, Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed Binani has demonstrated competence, capacity, empathy and compassion. These are qualities required at this point in time. These are the unique selling points of the conquering Amazon of Adamawa politics. And insha Allah biiznillah ta’ala she will conquer because Adamawa women have made this project their own project.
The expectation therefore is that there will be a large turnout of women in the next election. Our biggest challenge is how to manage this high interest by our women. In the last election many places insisted on men voting before women. This is totally against the law. Moreover in order to shortchange the women some poorly trained electoral officials claimed that the BVAS machine will go off once it’s time. This was used to disenfranchise many women. The international standards of electoral conduct is that pregnant women, lactating mothers, the elderly and people living with disabilities are given priority at the polling unit. In addition, because we expect our women to vote and return home to cook for us, if anyone should be allowed priority passage during elections it should be our women. We expect all our party faithfuls not just agents and supervisors but everyone to ensure that the rights of our women to vote are protected. We owe our mothers, wives, sisters and daughters this much.
The sum of it all is that during the March 11th elections there will be shifting allegiances and a further demystification of the power of incumbency. New realities will emerge and different patterns will be observed. Most importantly the next election just like the last one is for the women and youths. They will definitely determine outcomes not just in Adamawa State but in the whole country.